2026 midterm forecast

Who is favoured to control the Senate and the House and to win the governorships: civicAPI’s model, then every forecaster’s rating of the competitive races side by side.

Data: civicAPI

Senate

Chance of a majority (51+ seats)

44%Democrats

33%Republicans

Neither party: 23% of simulations.

Expected seats

Democrats: 50.1 (range 46–54)
Republicans: 49.5 (range 46–53)

Average of 65,000 simulations; the range covers 90% of them.

Seat distribution

Democratic seats in each of 65,000 simulations of civicAPI’s model. Bar colour: the party with a majority (grey: neither).

civicAPI ratings of the 35 races

Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Tilt D
Toss-up
Tilt R
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
No race

How forecasters rate the competitive races

Every race that at least one of 18 forecasters does not rate Safe, closest first.

Senate: ratings of the competitive races by forecaster
Seat	civicAPI	Cook Political Report	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Inside Elections	Split Ticket	Decision Desk HQ	FiftyPlusOne	Fox News	RRH Elections	Race to the WH	VoteHub	ElectIndex	CM Election Predictions	America First Insight	OpenSourceZone	Kalshi	Polymarket	PredictIt
Iowa	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Tilt R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Safe R	Likely R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Texas	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Safe R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Toss-up
Ohio	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Tilt D	Toss-up	Lean D	Safe R	Toss-up	Tilt D	Tilt D	Tilt D
Maine	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely R	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D
Alaska	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D
Michigan	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D
New Hampshire	Tilt D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Nebraska	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Tilt R	Tilt R	Tilt R
Kansas	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Lean R	Tilt R	Tilt R
Georgia	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Tilt R	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
North Carolina	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe R	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Minnesota	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
South Carolina	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Florida	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Montana	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Tilt R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Mississippi	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Louisiana	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R
South Dakota	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R
Idaho	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R
Arkansas	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R
Colorado	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Kentucky	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R
Oklahoma	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R
Oregon	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D

Data: civicAPI, updated 22 Sept 2026

House of Representatives

Chance of a majority (218+ seats)

93%Democrats

6%Republicans

Expected seats

Democrats: 236.6 (range 216–258)
Republicans: 197.8 (range 176–219)

Average of 65,000 simulations; the range covers 90% of them.

Generic ballot average: Democrats 53.5%, Republicans 46.5% (130 polls)

civicAPI ratings of the 435 districts

171

118

Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Tilt D
Toss-up
Tilt R
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R

Likely D (29): CA-01, CA-06, CA-09, CA-17, CA-45, CA-49, CO-01, FL-20, FL-24, IL-01, IL-07, IL-08, IL-09, IN-01, MN-02, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-05, NJ-09, NJ-11, NM-02, NV-01, NV-03, NY-03, NY-04, NY-10, NY-19, OR-04, TX-28
Lean D (7): AZ-06, CA-13, CA-21, CA-25, CA-48, MA-08, WA-03
Tilt D (16): CA-22, CO-08, FL-14, IA-01, IA-03, MI-10, NC-11, NJ-07, OH-01, OH-07, OH-09, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, TX-15, TX-34
Toss-up (17): AZ-01, CO-05, FL-07, FL-09, FL-22, FL-25, IA-02, ME-02, MI-04, MI-07, NC-01, NY-17, TX-23, TX-35, VA-01, VA-02, WI-03
Tilt R (13): AL-02, AZ-02, CO-04, KY-06, MN-01, MT-01, NC-09, NE-01, NY-21, PA-01, SC-01, TN-05, TX-02
Lean R (28): AK-AL, CA-05, CO-03, FL-13, FL-19, FL-27, GA-08, IL-16, IN-05, MN-06, MN-07, MN-08, MO-02, MO-06, NC-03, NC-05, NC-07, NC-10, NV-02, NY-11, NY-24, OH-10, OH-15, PA-09, PA-14, VA-05, WA-05, WI-01
Likely R (36): AR-02, AZ-08, FL-04, FL-05, FL-08, FL-11, FL-12, FL-16, FL-26, FL-28, GA-07, GA-09, GA-14, IL-12, IN-04, KS-02, KY-01, KY-04, MD-01, MI-01, NC-06, NC-13, NJ-02, NY-01, NY-02, NY-23, OK-05, PA-13, PA-15, SC-02, TN-07, TN-09, TX-09, TX-10, UT-02, VA-06

How forecasters rate the competitive districts

Every district that at least one of 16 forecasters does not rate Safe, closest first.

Show all 218 districts

House of Representatives: ratings of the competitive races by forecaster
Seat	civicAPI	Cook Political Report	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Inside Elections	Split Ticket	Decision Desk HQ	FiftyPlusOne	Fox News	RRH Elections	VoteHub	ElectIndex	CM Election Predictions	America First Insight	Kalshi	Polymarket	PredictIt
PA-08	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean R	Tilt D	Tilt D	–
MI-07	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
IA-02	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
MI-10	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt R	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Tilt D	Tilt D	–
OH-07	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	–
NC-11	Tilt D	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely R	Tilt D	Tilt D	Safe R
NY-17	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Tilt D	Tilt D	Tilt D
NC-01	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Tilt R	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely R	Tilt D	Tilt D	Toss-up
FL-25	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean R	Lean D	Tilt D	–
OH-09	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt R	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	–
IA-03	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	–
MI-04	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean D	Lean R	Likely R	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
VA-01	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Likely R	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt R	Lean R	Toss-up	Likely R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
WI-03	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D
TX-35	Toss-up	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely R	Tilt D	Lean D	–
FL-22	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean D	Lean D	Likely R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
ME-02	Toss-up	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Likely R	Tilt R	Toss-up	Toss-up
VA-02	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	–
PA-01	Tilt R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Likely D	Lean R	Toss-up	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
TX-15	Tilt D	Lean R	Toss-up	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely R	Lean D	Tilt D	–
AZ-01	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D
IA-01	Tilt D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
PA-10	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Tilt D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D
FL-14	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean R	Lean R	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean R	Tilt D	Tilt D	–
TX-34	Tilt D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	–
PA-07	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D
CO-05	Toss-up	Likely R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Likely R	Toss-up	Likely R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	–
CO-03	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
FL-07	Toss-up	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
AL-02	Tilt R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Toss-up	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	–
TX-23	Toss-up	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean R	Likely R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
CO-08	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
FL-09	Toss-up	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
MT-01	Tilt R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean D	Likely R	Lean R	Tilt R	–
NJ-07	Tilt D	Toss-up	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	–
SC-01	Tilt R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Tilt R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Safe R	Lean R	Tilt R	–
AZ-06	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
CA-22	Tilt D	Toss-up	Lean D	Tilt R	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	–
WI-01	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean D	Likely R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
AZ-02	Tilt R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Likely R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
FL-27	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
WA-03	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
CO-04	Tilt R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Toss-up	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Tilt R	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
OH-01	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Safe D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	–
MO-02	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Toss-up	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	–
NV-02	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	–
CA-48	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	–
FL-13	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	–
KY-06	Tilt R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean D	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	–
MN-01	Tilt R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	–
NY-01	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
OH-15	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	–
TX-28	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	–
AK-AL	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	–
CA-13	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	–
FL-16	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Toss-up	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NY-03	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	–
VA-05	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NE-01	Tilt R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NM-02	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
NE-02	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
NH-01	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	–
NV-03	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	–
OH-10	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
AR-02	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Toss-up	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NC-09	Tilt R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	–
NY-21	Tilt R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	–
NY-04	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D
TX-09	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
CA-45	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
NC-03	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NY-02	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
FL-04	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
FL-11	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
IN-05	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
MN-02	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	–
NJ-02	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean D	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NY-19	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
WA-05	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	–
AZ-08	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
FL-12	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
FL-26	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
MN-08	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NC-07	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NC-13	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NV-01	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	–
TN-09	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
IN-01	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
TN-05	Tilt R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
CA-21	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
TX-32	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
AZ-05	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
CA-06	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
FL-21	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
GA-01	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
KS-02	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
MI-08	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	–
NC-06	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NC-14	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NJ-09	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
NV-04	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
OK-05	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
SC-02	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	–
TX-02	Tilt R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
VA-07	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
FL-02	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
GA-12	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	–
NC-05	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	–
OH-08	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
WI-08	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
FL-08	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
FL-15	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
FL-18	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
MD-01	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	–
MN-06	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
MO-05	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely R	Safe D	Safe D	Lean R	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	–
NC-10	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
NH-02	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
OH-13	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
TX-10	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
TX-24	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
FL-28	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
MI-01	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	–
CA-05	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
CA-25	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
FL-05	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
IL-16	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
IL-17	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
NC-08	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
NY-11	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
OR-05	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
SC-05	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	–
VA-06	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
CA-01	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
CA-23	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
CA-49	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
CT-05	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
FL-03	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
FL-19	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
GA-08	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
GA-11	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
GA-14	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
IL-08	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
KS-03	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
MA-08	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
MI-03	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
MN-07	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
MO-06	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
NM-03	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
NY-24	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
OR-04	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
PA-09	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
PA-11	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
PA-14	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
PA-17	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
TN-07	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
TX-27	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
TX-38	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
WA-04	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
WI-06	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
WI-07	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
AZ-04	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
CA-09	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
CA-17	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
CA-27	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
CA-47	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
CO-01	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
FL-20	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
FL-24	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
GA-07	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
GA-09	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
GA-10	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
IL-01	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
IL-06	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
IL-07	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
IL-09	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
IL-12	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
IL-13	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
IL-14	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
IN-04	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
KS-01	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
KY-01	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
KY-04	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
LA-04	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
MA-01	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	–
MD-04	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	–
MD-05	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	–
MD-06	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	–
MO-03	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
NJ-05	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
NJ-11	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
NM-01	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	–
NY-10	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
NY-22	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
NY-23	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
OH-05	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
OH-14	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
OK-01	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
OR-01	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	–
OR-02	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
PA-04	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	–
PA-06	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
PA-13	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
PA-15	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
PA-16	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
SC-04	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
TN-04	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
TN-08	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
TX-03	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
TX-05	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
TX-17	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
TX-21	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
TX-22	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
TX-25	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
TX-36	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
UT-02	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
UT-03	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
WV-01	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–

Data: civicAPI, updated 22 Sept 2026

Governors

Chance of winning most governorships

53%Democrats

31%Republicans

Neither party: 16% of simulations.

Expected governorships

Democrats: 25.6 (range 22–30)
Republicans: 24.3 (range 20–28)

Average of 65,000 simulations; the range covers 90% of them.

Seat distribution

Democratic seats in each of 65,000 simulations of civicAPI’s model. Bar colour: the party with a majority (grey: neither).

civicAPI ratings of the 36 races

Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Tilt D
Toss-up
Tilt R
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
No race

How forecasters rate the competitive races

Every race that at least one of 14 forecasters does not rate Safe, closest first.

Governors: ratings of the competitive races by forecaster
Seat	civicAPI	Cook Political Report	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Inside Elections	Fox News	RRH Elections	Race to the WH	VoteHub	ElectIndex	CM Election Predictions	America First Insight	Kalshi	Polymarket	PredictIt
Ohio	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Safe R	Tilt D	Toss-up	Tilt D
Georgia	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe R	Tilt D	Tilt D	Toss-up
Nevada	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Tilt R	Lean D	Lean R	Safe R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Wisconsin	Tilt D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Kansas	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	Tilt R
Alaska	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe R	Likely D	Likely D	–
Iowa	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe R	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
Florida	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R
Oregon	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	–
Arizona	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean R	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Michigan	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Tilt R	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D
Texas	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Tilt R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R
New Hampshire	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
Maine	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
Minnesota	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
New Mexico	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D
South Carolina	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
Oklahoma	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
Alabama	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R
Nebraska	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R
New York	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Vermont	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R
Arkansas	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
Rhode Island	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
South Dakota	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
Tennessee	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
Colorado	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Connecticut	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Pennsylvania	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D

Data: civicAPI, updated 22 Sept 2026