Rasmussen Reports 30 Sept 2026 28 Sept 2026 – 29 Sept 2026 1,128 — Talarico (D) 46.0% new Paxton (R) 45.0% new Source for Rasmussen Reports poll (opens in a new tab) Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) 1 Oct 2026 24 Sept 2026 – 28 Sept 2026 881 — Talarico (D) 51.0% ±0.0 percentage points Paxton (R) 49.0% +1.0 percentage points Source for Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) poll (opens in a new tab) Pulse Decision Science (R) 29 Sept 2026 24 Sept 2026 – 27 Sept 2026 800 — Paxton (R) 48.0% new Talarico (D) 45.0% new Source for Pulse Decision Science (R) poll (opens in a new tab) Big Data Poll 27 Sept 2026 24 Sept 2026 – 26 Sept 2026 698 — Talarico (D) 47.0% new Paxton (R) 45.0% new Source for Big Data Poll poll (opens in a new tab) Stratus Intelligence (R) 24 Sept 2026* 22 Sept 2026 – 24 Sept 2026 856 — Paxton (R) 48.0% new Talarico (D) 48.0% new Source for Stratus Intelligence (R) poll (opens in a new tab) Texas Public Opinion Research (D) 22 Sept 2026* 19 Sept 2026 – 22 Sept 2026 1,007 — Talarico (D) 49.0% +1.0 percentage points Paxton (R) 44.0% +2.0 percentage points Source for Texas Public Opinion Research (D) poll (opens in a new tab) Marist University 20 Sept 2026* 17 Sept 2026 – 20 Sept 2026 1,139 — Talarico (D) 50.0% new Paxton (R) 44.0% new Source for Marist University poll (opens in a new tab) Texas Southern University 19 Sept 2026* 15 Sept 2026 – 19 Sept 2026 1,800 — Talarico (D) 47.0% ±0.0 percentage points Paxton (R) 46.0% +1.0 percentage points Source for Texas Southern University poll (opens in a new tab) Trafalgar Group (R) 18 Sept 2026 15 Sept 2026 – 17 Sept 2026 1,079 — Talarico (D) 46.0% new Paxton (R) 45.0% new Source for Trafalgar Group (R) poll (opens in a new tab) Emerson College 17 Sept 2026 12 Sept 2026 – 14 Sept 2026 1,000 — Talarico (D) 47.0% +1.0 percentage points Paxton (R) 46.0% −1.0 percentage points Source for Emerson College poll (opens in a new tab) SoCal Strategies 13 Sept 2026 12 Sept 2026 – 13 Sept 2026 649 — Talarico (D) 50.0% new Paxton (R) 45.0% new Source for SoCal Strategies poll (opens in a new tab) ReconMR/Siena University 17 Sept 2026 8 Sept 2026 – 11 Sept 2026 614 — Talarico (D) 49.0% new Paxton (R) 43.0% new Source for ReconMR/Siena University poll (opens in a new tab) Mason-Dixon 15 Sept 2026 8 Sept 2026 – 10 Sept 2026 625 — Talarico (D) 46.0% new Paxton (R) 43.0% new Source for Mason-Dixon poll (opens in a new tab) InsiderAdvantage 10 Sept 2026 8 Sept 2026 – 9 Sept 2026 1,200 — Talarico (D) 47.0% new Paxton (R) 46.0% new Source for InsiderAdvantage poll (opens in a new tab) Univision/YouGov 9 Sept 2026 27 Aug 2026 – 4 Sept 2026 1,000 — Talarico (D) 48.0% new Paxton (R) 43.0% new Source for Univision/YouGov poll (opens in a new tab) Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) 10 Sept 2026 30 Aug 2026 – 1 Sept 2026 895 — Talarico (D) 48.0% new Paxton (R) 44.0% new Source for Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) poll (opens in a new tab) Overton Insights (R) 26 Aug 2026* 24 Aug 2026 – 26 Aug 2026 1,167 — Paxton (R) 50.0% new Talarico (D) 50.0% new Source for Overton Insights (R) poll (opens in a new tab) Texas Public Opinion Research (D) 27 Aug 2026 21 Aug 2026 – 24 Aug 2026 1,000 — Talarico (D) 48.0% +3.0 percentage points Paxton (R) 42.0% +2.0 percentage points Source for Texas Public Opinion Research (D) poll (opens in a new tab) University of Texas/Texas Politics Project 25 Aug 2026 5 Aug 2026 – 13 Aug 2026 1,200 — Talarico (D) 42.0% ±0.0 percentage points Paxton (R) 39.0% −4.0 percentage points Source for University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll (opens in a new tab) Emerson College 13 Aug 2026 9 Aug 2026 – 10 Aug 2026 1,000 — Paxton (R) 47.0% new Talarico (D) 46.0% new Source for Emerson College poll (opens in a new tab)